Voici une méthode simple permettant de répondre à la question "Comment jouer les surebets sur les matchs en live ?" Petite remarque pour nos amis qui peuvent jouer en dehors de l'ARJEL : cette technique fonctionne très bien chez notre bookmaker préféré d'Australie.
Illustration de la méthode à travers un match de tennis
Premier technique : parier l'Outsider puis le Favoris
Choisir un match devant être équilibré et le suivre en direct à la télévision ou en screener sur votre PC. Faire attention que le match soit un vrai direct et non en décalage de quelques secondes. Nous prendrons l'exemple du match Djokovic vs Federer où Djokovic est favoris à la cote 1.6
Djokovic remporte le 1er set et sa cote chute à 1.1,en revanche celle de Federer monte à 4
Vous pariez sur Federer car vous estimez qu'il ne perdra pas 3 sets à 0.
Bien vu, Federer gagne le deuxième set et la cote de Djokovic repasse à 1.7.
Nous sommes à 1 set partout. Vous pariez sur Djokovic car vous pensez qu'il gagnera tout de même la rencontre.
Quelque soit l'issu du match, vous avez maintenant un solde positif.
En pariant une chose et son contraire dans un même match, si vous respectez les formules données sur la fiche des surebets :
Nous savons que nous avons un surebet à jouer car 1/C1 + 1/C2 = 1/4 + 1/1.7 = 0.83 < 1
Quelle montant miser ? Il faut respecter la formule : M1 /(C2-1)< M2 < M1.(C1-1) avec C1 la cote du 1er pari, Mise1 le montant misé sur le 1er pari, C2 la cote du 2eme pari, Mise2 le montant misé sur le 2eme pari
Illustration . M1 = 7€ , M2 = 15€
Deuxième technique : parier le favoris puis l'Outsider
Choisir un match devant être équilibré et le suivre en direct à la télévision ou en screener sur votre PC. Faire attention que le matchsoit un vrai direct et non en décalage de quelques secondes. Nous reprenons l'exemple du match Djokovic vs Federer où Djokovic est favoris à la cote 1.6
Vous pariez sur Djokovitch car vous estimez qu'il est mieux armé pour remporter la rencontre.
Djokovic remporte bien le 1er set mais pour autant vous n'êtes plus très certain de sa victoire.
La cote de Federer est à 4 et vous décidez de jouer le surebet
Quelque soit l'issu du match vous êtes certain d'avoir un solde positif!
La formule
Quels montants pariez ? Il suffit d'appliquer les formules :
Nous savons que nous avons un surebet à jouer car 1/C1 + 1/C2 = 1/1.6 + 1/4 = 0.88 < 1 (voire article méthode des surebets)
Quelle montant miser ? Il faut respecter la formule : M1 /(C2-1)< M2 < M1.(C1-1) avec C1 la cote du 1er pari, M1 le montant misé sur le 1er pari, C2 la cote du 2eme pari, Mi2 le montant misé sur le 2eme pari
Illustration M1 = 15€ , M2 = 7€
Quelques conseils pratiques
En prenant M2 avec le plus petite valeur, vous favoriser votre premier pari. En revanche en prenant la valeur la plus importante, vous favorisez votre deuxième pari.
Encore une fois, jouer su plusieurs bookmaker, c'est se donner plus de chance de gain : de meilleures cotes pour un même pari. Mais c'est également la possibilité de jouer des surebets à des moments différents. Les algorithmes utilisés par les bookmakers ne sont pas forcément les mêmes, ou ne partent pas avec les mêmes données.
Vous pouvez également transformer un surbet pour vous couvrir sur une combinaison que vous aurez nettement favorisé
Nous avons fait une illustration sur le Tennis car c'est un sport pour lequel il ne peut y avoir que deux résultats (pas de match nul) et que les variations importantes de cotes sont fréquentes (surtout sur des rencontres un peu moins suivies) . Néanmoins, cela fonctionne bien également avec le handball et le basket.
before on this blog that until Federer loses in London or New York he's still the man. That said, today felt like a changing of the guard. No, nobdoy other than Karen expected Federer to win, but Nadal is improving. So many people have thought over the years that Rafa peaked. He's 22, and is improving. He's added a nice little slice to his game. He's more aggressive and hitting flatter when needed, he's hitting the ball deeper. In short he's entering his prime.Federer knows it. He said last year after winning Wimbledon, "I better win now before he wins them all." And while he cleaned Rafa's clock indoors in China, he has been mentally and physically whipped by Nadal this year on clay. We've knowN for the last year Fed was slowly declining, if only mentally. But today he was leading the party to his own funeral. Dead man walking. He did not believe he could beat Rafa. You have to wonder if he'll believe he can going forward again on any surface. This is taken from an ESPN article.Corretja: We knew that could happen.Wilander: But we hoped that when you've won 12 Grand Slams, you would give him a little bit of body language, so that maybe Rafa thinks that Roger thinks he has a chance.Corretja: Yes, yes, yes.Wilander: What's happening to all of them against Rafa? The only battle you can battle with him is in the mind. His tennis is too good. Show me a little fire.Corretja: He gave up. Just ridiculous.Wilander: I mean, show me some emotion. I don't want to waste my day watching a guy who's that good a player Corretja: Me too. I feel like he's probably the greatest, and now I feel like, I can't give you this.Wilander: Exactly how I feel. I mean, you have to get emotionally involved. Otherwise, you're doing the wrong thing, you have the wrong job. I mean I understand the tactics, the tactics were OK. He was trying to hit the forehand early. He executed horribly.Corretja: Still, for me -- it's 15-0 in the first game. He misses the first two forehands like this (holds hand close to ground). So flat, no thinking already, on the second point.Wilander: How many let cords did he have? It's not bad luck.Corretja: My [broadcast] partner said it was bad luck. I said no, it was bad playing....Maybe, he had Mono again.Fed is one of the greatest, but when you don't fight, when you give lipservice and then lay an egg, as Alex said "I can't give you this."Obviously, if Roger loses next month it'll be the first nail in the coffin. But, I think Nadal has a great chance, as does Novak and even Andy. Federer has slipped, but Nadal is getting better.It would seem almost unthinkable that Federer will not win 3 more slams to break Pete's record, but if he's shutout the rest of the year, I don't think he'll be long for the sport. As for Nadal on clay. He's awesome. I've said he's already won the next three French Opens. Maybe I was wrong.He's won the next five.
before on this blog that until Federer loses in London or New York he's still the man. That said, today felt like a changing of the guard. No, nobdoy other than Karen expected Federer to win, but Nadal is improving. So many people have thought over the years that Rafa peaked. He's 22, and is improving. He's added a nice little slice to his game. He's more aggressive and hitting flatter when needed, he's hitting the ball deeper. In short he's entering his prime.Federer knows it. He said last year after winning Wimbledon, "I better win now before he wins them all." And while he cleaned Rafa's clock indoors in China, he has been mentally and physically whipped by Nadal this year on clay. We've knowN for the last year Fed was slowly declining, if only mentally. But today he was leading the party to his own funeral. Dead man walking. He did not believe he could beat Rafa. You have to wonder if he'll believe he can going forward again on any surface. This is taken from an ESPN article.Corretja: We knew that could happen.Wilander: But we hoped that when you've won 12 Grand Slams, you would give him a little bit of body language, so that maybe Rafa thinks that Roger thinks he has a chance.Corretja: Yes, yes, yes.Wilander: What's happening to all of them against Rafa? The only battle you can battle with him is in the mind. His tennis is too good. Show me a little fire.Corretja: He gave up. Just ridiculous.Wilander: I mean, show me some emotion. I don't want to waste my day watching a guy who's that good a player Corretja: Me too. I feel like he's probably the greatest, and now I feel like, I can't give you this.Wilander: Exactly how I feel. I mean, you have to get emotionally involved. Otherwise, you're doing the wrong thing, you have the wrong job. I mean I understand the tactics, the tactics were OK. He was trying to hit the forehand early. He executed horribly.Corretja: Still, for me -- it's 15-0 in the first game. He misses the first two forehands like this (holds hand close to ground). So flat, no thinking already, on the second point.Wilander: How many let cords did he have? It's not bad luck.Corretja: My [broadcast] partner said it was bad luck. I said no, it was bad playing....Maybe, he had Mono again.Fed is one of the greatest, but when you don't fight, when you give lipservice and then lay an egg, as Alex said "I can't give you this."Obviously, if Roger loses next month it'll be the first nail in the coffin. But, I think Nadal has a great chance, as does Novak and even Andy. Federer has slipped, but Nadal is getting better.It would seem almost unthinkable that Federer will not win 3 more slams to break Pete's record, but if he's shutout the rest of the year, I don't think he'll be long for the sport. As for Nadal on clay. He's awesome. I've said he's already won the next three French Opens. Maybe I was wrong.He's won the next five.
rabbit, I don't bleeive Raja ever had mono. I bleeive he had food poisoning as was originally reported and that was that. I will always maintain that the mono reporting struck me as false from the get go.Raja hasn't been out of the sport with any injuries for any considerable length of time. Raja only lost the No. 1 ranking a few weeks ago. He fell to No. 2.Raja has faced a crisis of confidence in the face of the rise of Rafael Nadal on the tour.That's all.No surgeries, no tragedies, no extended slump, no fall from grace. He hasn't been vilified by the press for having interests outside of tennis.There have been allusion to personal problems, but I haven't a clue what they might be.Raja is in his 5th consecutive US Open final and third Slam final of the year.He recently lost by a smidgen the best Wimbledon final in the Open Era.His troubles have been overstated.He's still at the top of the sport and hasn't fallen out of the spotlight.He hasn't gone anywhere.Raja is gifted. And very, very lucky. The weather always seems to work to his advantage in the late stages of Slams. And the scheduling.His semifinal had no business being scheduled first. Period.I'm not feeling a comeback from anything deep when he capitalizes on his luck and displays his gifts and wins tomorrow.So the short answer is no.
rabbit, I don't bleeive Raja ever had mono. I bleeive he had food poisoning as was originally reported and that was that. I will always maintain that the mono reporting struck me as false from the get go.Raja hasn't been out of the sport with any injuries for any considerable length of time. Raja only lost the No. 1 ranking a few weeks ago. He fell to No. 2.Raja has faced a crisis of confidence in the face of the rise of Rafael Nadal on the tour.That's all.No surgeries, no tragedies, no extended slump, no fall from grace. He hasn't been vilified by the press for having interests outside of tennis.There have been allusion to personal problems, but I haven't a clue what they might be.Raja is in his 5th consecutive US Open final and third Slam final of the year.He recently lost by a smidgen the best Wimbledon final in the Open Era.His troubles have been overstated.He's still at the top of the sport and hasn't fallen out of the spotlight.He hasn't gone anywhere.Raja is gifted. And very, very lucky. The weather always seems to work to his advantage in the late stages of Slams. And the scheduling.His semifinal had no business being scheduled first. Period.I'm not feeling a comeback from anything deep when he capitalizes on his luck and displays his gifts and wins tomorrow.So the short answer is no.
Swarup
2012-05-17 10:22:29
before on this blog that until Federer loses in London or New York he's still the man. That said, today felt like a changing of the guard. No, nobdoy other than Karen expected Federer to win, but Nadal is improving. So many people have thought over the years that Rafa peaked. He's 22, and is improving. He's added a nice little slice to his game. He's more aggressive and hitting flatter when needed, he's hitting the ball deeper. In short he's entering his prime.Federer knows it. He said last year after winning Wimbledon, "I better win now before he wins them all." And while he cleaned Rafa's clock indoors in China, he has been mentally and physically whipped by Nadal this year on clay. We've knowN for the last year Fed was slowly declining, if only mentally. But today he was leading the party to his own funeral. Dead man walking. He did not believe he could beat Rafa. You have to wonder if he'll believe he can going forward again on any surface. This is taken from an ESPN article.Corretja: We knew that could happen.Wilander: But we hoped that when you've won 12 Grand Slams, you would give him a little bit of body language, so that maybe Rafa thinks that Roger thinks he has a chance.Corretja: Yes, yes, yes.Wilander: What's happening to all of them against Rafa? The only battle you can battle with him is in the mind. His tennis is too good. Show me a little fire.Corretja: He gave up. Just ridiculous.Wilander: I mean, show me some emotion. I don't want to waste my day watching a guy who's that good a player Corretja: Me too. I feel like he's probably the greatest, and now I feel like, I can't give you this.Wilander: Exactly how I feel. I mean, you have to get emotionally involved. Otherwise, you're doing the wrong thing, you have the wrong job. I mean I understand the tactics, the tactics were OK. He was trying to hit the forehand early. He executed horribly.Corretja: Still, for me -- it's 15-0 in the first game. He misses the first two forehands like this (holds hand close to ground). So flat, no thinking already, on the second point.Wilander: How many let cords did he have? It's not bad luck.Corretja: My [broadcast] partner said it was bad luck. I said no, it was bad playing....Maybe, he had Mono again.Fed is one of the greatest, but when you don't fight, when you give lipservice and then lay an egg, as Alex said "I can't give you this."Obviously, if Roger loses next month it'll be the first nail in the coffin. But, I think Nadal has a great chance, as does Novak and even Andy. Federer has slipped, but Nadal is getting better.It would seem almost unthinkable that Federer will not win 3 more slams to break Pete's record, but if he's shutout the rest of the year, I don't think he'll be long for the sport. As for Nadal on clay. He's awesome. I've said he's already won the next three French Opens. Maybe I was wrong.He's won the next five.
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